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Latest writing

Essays on applied AI systems and the operating models around them.

A rising arc connecting electricity, spreadsheets, the internet, and AI, annotated with the recurring stages of a technology transition
01Transition pattern

From Spreadsheets to the Internet to AI: The Pattern Behind Every Technology Transition

Major technologies are misread at the start, adopted unevenly, governed late, and only pay off once work is redesigned around them. AI is running the same arc, faster. Treat it as an operating-model transition, not a tool rollout.

technology transitionsgeneral-purpose technologyAI strategy
May 14, 202610 min
Two curves showing technology access rising early while measured productivity lags, with a shaded gap labeled the lag
02Productivity lag

Electricity Took Decades to Pay Off. Here Is What That Teaches Us About AI.

When factories first electrified, they bolted motors into steam-era layouts and saw little. The gains came only after the work was redesigned. Expect the same gap between AI access and AI productivity, and respond with disciplined learning rather than waiting.

productivitychange managementworkflow redesign
May 16, 20269 min
A stylized spreadsheet grid with one formula cell highlighted to show a hidden assumption beneath a polished, quantitative artifact
03Democratized power

What Spreadsheets Teach Us About AI: Democratized Power, Hidden Risk

VisiCalc and Lotus 1-2-3 did not just speed up arithmetic. They changed who could model a business, and they buried assumptions inside formulas. AI democratizes analytical production the same way, and makes flawed reasoning look fluent. The answer is review that scales with the new producers.

spreadsheetsmodel riskverification
May 18, 202611 min
An adoption curve rising from 14 percent in 1995 to 96 percent today with a governance line trailing behind it
04Governance lag

The Internet's Skeptics Were Wrong About Adoption, and Right About Governance

In 1995, 14 percent of US adults were online and famous voices predicted collapse. They were wrong about diffusion and often right about the institutional problems uncontrolled adoption would create. Separate the two questions for AI: will it spread, and what controls does safe use require?

internet historyAI governanceadoption
May 20, 202611 min
Six labeled tiles naming the recurring dynamics of major technology transitions
05Common patterns

Six Patterns Every Technology Transition Repeats

Across electricity, spreadsheets, computers, and the internet, the same six organizational dynamics decide whether a technology becomes an advantage or unmanaged risk. Here they are, and what each one demands of anyone preparing for AI.

adoption patternsoperating modelAI strategy
May 22, 202612 min
An irregular frontier line with success markers inside it and failure markers just outside it
06Jagged frontier

AI's Jagged Frontier: Why It Is Like Past Technologies, and Why It Is Not

AI is a general-purpose technology whose value depends on complementary innovation, just like electricity and the internet. But it differs in three ways that change how you manage it: it targets high-skill work, its barrier to entry is language, and it is brilliant and wrong at lookalike tasks.

jagged frontierhuman in the looptask design
May 24, 202612 min
A value-versus-risk matrix beside a numbered list of ten AI preparation steps
07Operating playbook

Preparing for AI: A Ten-Part Operating Playbook

If AI is an operating-model transition rather than a tool rollout, preparation is concrete work. Here are ten steps, from treating the task as the unit of analysis to measuring outcomes instead of activity, that turn experimentation into governed advantage.

AI governanceoperating modeladoption playbook
May 26, 202614 min
Three ascending bands from controlled enablement to workflow redesign to business-model transformation
08Three horizons

Three Horizons for the AI Transition: From Controlled Enablement to New Business Models

Manage the AI transition in three overlapping horizons: controlled enablement, workflow redesign, and business-model transformation. It is the path from safe access to redesigned work to new value, and it avoids both passivity and reckless acceleration.

strategythree horizonsbusiness model
May 28, 202611 min
Model routing board comparing frontier, small proprietary, and open-weight models by task quality and cost
09Cost per task

Small Models Are Catching Up. Your AI Strategy Should Notice.

Do not buy model hype. Benchmark the work your company actually does, then route each job to the cheapest model that reliably clears the bar.

cost per taskmodel routingopen-weight AI
May 202612 min
Hybrid inference architecture with private endpoints, hosted models, local hardware, observability, and policy controls
010Inference control

Own Your Inference, Own Your Data, Stability, and Security

Inference is becoming strategic infrastructure. The question is not only which API is cheapest, but which parts of the AI stack your company controls.

inferenceAI infrastructuresecurity
May 202611 min
Internal AI harness classifying tasks, assigning risk, routing models, validating outputs, and logging accepted work
011AI operating model

Own Your Harness, Own Your Cost and Effectiveness

Enterprises need an internal AI routing layer, not only access to ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Cursor, or whatever lab surface happens to be most popular this month.

AI harnessgovernancecost control
May 202611 min
Layered execution map with planning gates, work packages, verification paths, and approval checkpoints
012Planning systems

How I Plan With AI

I do not ask AI to decide. I use it to make ambiguity visible before execution starts.

planningagentic workexecution
April 20269 min
A receding wall of social posts grouped into repeated archetypes with an echo index scanner overlay
013Signal quality

The Echo Chamber Index

A feed audit showed the real AI content problem: not that everyone writes about AI, but that everyone writes about it the same way.

writingAI literacysignal
April 20268 min
Three ascending AI adoption levels with blockers, guardrails, and capability checkpoints
014Enterprise adoption

The Three Levels of AI Adoption

Most adoption programs fail because they treat AI literacy as one skill. It is really a progression from answers, to collaboration, to orchestration.

enterprise AIliteracyoperating model
April 202610 min
A human operator orchestrating tools, agents, data, and enterprise systems over a layered AI operating system
015Organization design

Everyone Is a Design Engineer Now

As AI commoditizes knowledge, the scarce capability becomes designing, directing, and validating systems of work.

design engineeringAI operating systemleadership
April 20269 min
A modular enterprise architecture stack with swappable models, agents, data sources, guardrails, and observability planes
016Enterprise architecture

The Composable Enterprise

In an AI market that changes monthly, durable advantage comes from systems designed to be replaced.

architectureAI gatewaygovernance
April 202610 min